Energy, Governor Murphy, NEW JERSEY ENERGY ECONOMICS
Hit the Brakes on Murphy’s Carbon Neutral Goals
2035 is just 11 years away, and by then, I’ll be 30 years old. If all goes according to plan, I’ll be juggling a career, a marriage, and maybe even a couple of kids. While I’m still trying to wrap my head around what my own future holds, Governor Murphy seems to have no trouble envisioning his. With New Jersey’s commitment to the California Advanced Clean Cars Mandate, he’s decided that all newly sold cars and light-duty trucks will need to be 100% electric. This bold move makes me wonder if I’ll be driving into adulthood on an electric charge, while the rest of the world races to catch up.
If Murphy wants a carbon-neutral New Jersey, he might need to hit the brakes a bit.
When talking with fellow college freshmen who are eager to have their vehicles back, my home state often draws remarks about its notoriously underdeveloped roads, aggressive driving and unbearable traffic. Coupling our infrastructural failures with an under equipped electric grid, how will I manage when my electric vehicle runs low on battery? Will I be stranded on the side of the road, searching for a charging station that might not even be nearby? Without strategic planning and investment to keep pace with demand, we risk charging spots with long lines and wait times, hurting our state’s driving environment even more.
Senator Bob Smith, Chairman of the Senate Environment and Energy Committee from Middlesex put it aptly: “The issue is: We have a grid that does not work. It works for some things. When you go home, you can turn your lights on, and it works. But the massive amount of renewables we need to get us close to surviving (the climate crisis) can’t be handled by the grid. Our grid is a mess.” Right now, in New Jersey, there’s a staggering imbalance between electric vehicles and charging ports. According to a Gothamist analysis, for every one charging port, there are 30 registered electric vehicles or plug-in hybrids. That’s a more significant shortage than any other state or the District of Columbia.
Putting my economics studies to use, I know this is just supply meeting demand. Many people simply don’t like electric vehicles. In a letter sent to President Biden last November, nearly 4,000 dealerships across the country urged the administration to hold off on its electric vehicle mandate, citing the need to aggressively discount their unsold inventory. Reflecting this growing concern, Ford recently announced plans to halve its 2024 F-150 Lightning production goals, while General Motors has delayed the production of several electric models. It’s crucial that we have confidence that residents will embrace exclusively electric cars in our state within the next decade or suppliers will be at a major loss.
While Governor Murphy’s Energy Master Plan is clear in its intention to transition New Jersey to a 100% clean energy future – structured around seven pillars that aim to gradually shift away from hydrocarbon reliance – with all things in life, it comes with a cost. Matter of fact, the Garden State Initiative alongside energy policy expert Mark Mills, projects this program to cost a whopping 40 billion dollars. In their joint report, they contend that the significant direct costs of implementing these policies, combined with the indirect costs of transitioning 98% of New Jersey’s gas-powered vehicle drivers to zero in just over a decade, present substantial challenges to low-income communities. Given the lack of evidence that electric vehicles will soon match the affordability and durability of low-cost alternatives, will I be forced to travel to a neighboring state to buy a gas-powered vehicle if an EV is out of my budget?
Losing wealth to neighboring states might seem like a noble sacrifice for a smaller carbon footprint, right? Well, since the mandate only targets the sale of new cars, there will still be plenty of gas-powered vehicles registered in New Jersey that are purchased elsewhere. Additionally, Mark Mills argues that the CO2 emissions from mining essential materials for EV batteries—such as copper, nickel, aluminum, graphite, and lithium—are comparable to those of gas-powered vehicles. Some EV proponents cherry-pick data, insisting that innovation will eventually make these vehicles less harmful to the environment.
So here’s my take: let’s wait for that breakthrough. Innovation can’t be put on a schedule; it should arise authentically, not be rushed. Governor Glenn Youngkin of Virginia echoed this sentiment when he withdrew from the mandate in June, stating, “I am very supportive of Virginians buying electric vehicles, but I want Virginians to make that decision for themselves.” It might be wise for us to take a page from Virginia’s playbook and delay the mandate until electric vehicles truly live up to their promises. I can relate Murphy’s enthusiasm for zero emissions to my own excitement about landing a six-figure job someday- it’s a fantastic goal, but it’s going to take some time to get there.
Horne is a member of GSI’s 2024 Summer Internship program and is a student at the College of William & Mary.