GSI Analysis: New Jersey Unemployment Rate was 5.2% in September, but Job Count Rose

• September unemployment rate was the highest since January 2022.
• Job increase of 10,900 was the best since February.

Total number of NJ residents working is estimated to have dropped by more than 8,000.

The greatly-delayed September data on New Jersey’s labor market showed mixed results. The headline news that the state’s unemployment rate rose from August’s 5.0% to 5.2% (exceeded by only California and Nevada, and New Jersey’s highest rate since January 2022) stands out. Somewhat ameliorating this news was a 2,401 increase in the state’s labor force, which accounted for a portion of the unemployment rate rise. Still, the total number of New Jersey residents working is estimated to have dropped by more than 8,000.

In sharp contrast were the figures on the number of jobs in the state. These are estimated the have risen 10,900 in September, which now stands as the largest increase since February. Nearly half of September’s increase is related to an  increase in government employment, which is possibly a statistical artifact related to the timing of new hires for the school year. Still, most private sectors saw gains in jobs in September, with the main exception being a drop in professional and business services.

While the September results for New Jersey seem, at best, mixed, they are somewhat better than some of our neighbors. In particular, New York saw both a rise in unemployment and a marked drop in jobs. Pennsylvania had very little change in jobs, and a slight uptick in unemployment. Massachusetts and Connecticut did not see unemployment increases (indeed, Massachusetts registered a slight drop), but both lost a fair number of jobs.

The Federal shutdown means these will not be an estimate of the state’s October unemployment rate, though there will be data on the job count. The job numbers for October and November, and the November labor force and unemployment data, will be released in early January.