GSI Analysis: June ’25 Jobs Report – New Jersey’s Labor Market Weakened in June

• Unemployment rate up to 4.9% with employment and the labor force both falling.
• Number of jobs down 9,700.
• Statistical issues probably magnified the job loss, but May’s soft number revised down.

New Jersey labor market numbers continue to be poor. The state’s unemployment rate rose to 4.9% in June, as a 5,600 drop in employed residents outstripped a 2,600 decline in the labor force. The 4.9% rate is the highest reported since January 2022, during the recovery from the pandemic. The number of residents at work in June 2025 was more than 30,000 fewer than in June 2024.

The job numbers were equally bleak. The total number of jobs fell 9,700—the largest drop since July 2024. May’s count was reduced by 2,200. The only sectors to report increases were financial activities and education and health services.

It seems that problems with the seasonal adjustment of the data magnified June’s losses. Most notably, leisure and hospitality fell by 1,300 and government was down a sharp 2,900. June is a turbulent month in these sectors, with seasonal hiring widespread in leisure and hospitality (before adjustment for an estimate of the normal seasonal change, jobs in this sector increased 32,000 from May), and the end of the school year, and summer hiring at parks and beaches, roiling the count in the public sector. Given this factor, it’s possible than July could see some rebound, at least in these sectors (or the June number could be revised up). Nonetheless, even after taking this factor into consideration, it was a disquieting report. In contrast, New York added 8,200 jobs in June (though it also saw a downward revision to May) and its unemployment rate was an unchanged 4.0%.