GSI Analysis: May ’24 Jobs Report – New Jersey’s Labor Market Flowered in May – But There Were Some Thorns

• Jobs grew a sharp 16,500—the largest gain since September. Leisure and hospitality were strong segments.
• The unemployment rate fell for a second straight month, edging down to 4.6% but still .6% above the national rate.
• New Jersey’s labor force and count of employed residents both fell. The discrepancy with the job numbers remains puzzling.

On June 20th, New Jersey’s Department of Labor and Workforce Development issued the Monthly Jobs Report for May 2024. Dr. Charles Steindel, former Chief Economist of the State of New Jersey, analyzed the report for the Garden State Initiative:

After a troubling April, New Jersey’s employment count rose 16,700 in May, and April’s level was revised up by 2,800 – though the month still shows a net loss of 8,100. All major sectors except construction and information showed gains. Leisure and hospitality accounted for nearly half the total increase, rising 7,200 to set a new record high of 408,800.

The unemployment rate also moved in the right direction, edging down .1 percentage point—it’s second straight decline–to 4.6%. It’s possible that when BLS issues the data for all states tomorrow that for the first time in many months New Jersey’s unemployment rate, still obviously higher than the nation’s 4.0%, may not be deemed to be “significantly” higher.

The decline in the unemployment rate, though, was the result of a 3,000 decline in the state’s labor force (the number of state residents at work was down 500). Over the past 12 months, the state’s labor force has fallen 16,700, and the number of employed residents is down 35,000. These figures are in very sharp contrast to the 80,200 increase in jobs. As of now there is no accounting for the difference. The job figures are traditionally thought to be more accurate, but this is not a hard and fast principle.