GSI Analysis: November ’23 Jobs Report – November Was Another Disappointing Month for New Jersey’s Labor Market

• New Jersey’s November performance was in sharp contrast to the national figures, which showed a drop in the unemployment rate to 3.7%–a full point less than our figure.
• Unemployment rate moved up to 4.7%, despite marked drop in the labor force. Employment of state residents down more than 65,000 since July.
• Modest gain in jobs barely offset a downward revision to October.

Sadly, New Jersey got a lump of coal in the form of the November job report. The state’s unemployment rate moved up from 4.6% to 4.7% in the face of a 10,700 decline in the labor force. The number of employed state residents fell by 15,500. There has been plunge of more than 65,000 in the employment count since July. New Jersey’s performance in November was in sharp contrast to the national figures, which showed a drop in the unemployment rate to 3.7%–a full point less than our figure—and quite marked gains in employment and the labor force.

The payroll numbers were less bad, but hardly robust. There was an increase of 4,100 jobs from the revised October level, but the October level is 2,800 less than originally reported. Thus, the increase from the first October estimate was a minuscule 1,300. Across the industry sectors, construction (-2,400) and information (-900) reported substantial losses, while education and health services and leisure and hospitality had good gains. Perhaps it should be noted that the two sectors with the large losses are relatively high wage, while the two with the large gains have many lower-paying jobs.

The data used to make the annual benchmark revision of the state’s job count (unemployment insurance tax records for the second quarter) seem to suggest that there has been a modest undercount of state jobs, and that the recent level of jobs could be a bit higher when the revision is released next March. However, these changes are not likely to make a great difference in the recent monthly trend. It’s possible that the annual revision of the unemployment and labor force numbers could show something different, but as of now the state’s labor market numbers are decidedly soft.